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Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences

The Royal Society

Preprints posted in the last 90 days, ranked by how well they match Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences's content profile, based on 12 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.00% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
Going around phase defects: reliable phase mapping for realistic data

Verstraeten, B.; Lootens, S.; Van Den Abeele, R.; Van Nieuwenhuize, V.; Okenov, A.; Hendrickx, S.; Santos bezzera, A.; Nezlobinskii, T.; Kappadan, V.; Handa, B. S.; Ng, F. S.; Duytschaever, M.; Vandersickel, N.

2026-02-04 biophysics 10.64898/2026.02.02.703232 medRxiv
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Phase mapping is a widespread method for identifying rotational electrical activity sustaining cardiac arrhythmias. However, conventional implementations assume that the cardiac phase map is continuous, leading to ill-defined phase indices in regions affected by functional conduction block, fibrosis, or anatomical boundaries. These regions of discontinuous or undefined phase, termed phase defects, lead to both false positive and false negative detections of rotational drivers. This work introduces an improved phase mapping implementation termed extended phase mapping that explicitly detects and accounts for phase defects, enabling robust calculation of the phase index around them. Extended phase mapping is applied to (1) simulated excitation patterns using the Fenton-Karma model, (2) experimental optical mapping data of rat ventricular fibrillation, and (3) a clinical CARTO activation map of atrial tachycardia. Across all datasets, the extended approach eliminates erroneous detections and resolves previously missed rotations. Our results demonstrate that proper treatment of phase defects yields a unified and physiologically consistent characterization of all rotational drivers including near-complete and anatomical reentries. Therefore, we propose replacing the classical notion of phase singularities with critical phase defects as the fundamental entities governing rotational dynamics in cardiac tissue. Author summaryDetecting rotating electrical activity in the heart is crucial for understanding and treating abnormal heart rhythms. A common method, phase mapping, assigns a timing phase to each region of the heart to identify these rotations. However, in regions affected by scars, blocked conduction, or anatomical boundaries, the phase can become undefined or discontinuous. These so-called phase defects make current methods unreliable, causing false detections or missed rotations. In this study, we introduce an extended method that explicitly identifies phase defects and calculates phase indices around them. We test this approach using computer simulations, experimental recordings from animal hearts, and clinical heart-mapping data. Across all datasets, it eliminates false detections and reveals previously overlooked rotational activity. By properly accounting for phase defects, the extended phase mapping method provides a more reliable and complete characterization of heart rhythms, offering a physiologically meaningful framework for studying electrical dynamics in cardiac tissue.

2
Recovering membrane interaction kinetics of single molecules from 3D tracking data

Lundin, E.; Volkov, I. L.; Johansson, M.

2026-04-10 biophysics 10.64898/2026.04.08.717195 medRxiv
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Interactions between cytosolic biomolecules and the bacterial inner membrane are fundamental to many cellular processes, yet directly measuring their binding kinetics in living cells remains challenging. Conventional two-dimensional single-molecule tracking analyses can be insufficient, particularly when membrane association does not markedly alter the diffusion rate. Here, we present a method to recover membrane interaction kinetics from three-dimensional single-molecule trajectories in rod-shaped bacteria. Using simulated 3D tracking data, we identify membrane-associated motion by quantifying how well short trajectory segments follow the circular curvature of the cell membrane. The resulting measure is further analyzed using a hidden Markov modeling framework, enabling robust discrimination between cytosolic and membrane-bound states and capturing the dynamics of state transitions without requiring diffusion-rate changes or direct colocalization with membrane markers. This work establishes a general framework for extracting membrane interaction kinetics from 3D single-molecule tracking data in live bacteria, and highlights the value of realistic microscopy simulations for quantitative interpretation and systematic bias assessment.

3
Quantifying optical sectioning in reflection microscopy with patterned illumination

Ventalon, C.; Nidriche, A.; Debarre, D.

2026-02-09 biophysics 10.64898/2026.02.06.703262 medRxiv
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Sectioning techniques based on patterned illumination have been widely used to obtain well-contrasted images of thick samples using widefield imaging setups. While their application to fluorescence microscopy has been extensively demonstrated and studied, their application to reflection imaging is scarcer and their performance has only been partly characterized. In this paper, we study numerically and analytically two such sectioning techniques, line confocal (LC) and structured illumination (SI), in the context of their application to reflection interference contrast microscopy (RICM), an imaging technique widely use in soft matter and biophysics studies to monitor object-surface interactions, or quantify surface functionalization. Our derivation, however, should provide insight into their use with other reflection methods such as optical coherence tomography (OCT) or scanning laser ophtalmoscope (SLO). We derive approximate analytical equations to relate the performance of sectioning to the optical setup parameters, allowing straightforward understanding of their influence on the achieved image intensity and depth of focus, and we systematically compare our prediction with experimental data. Finally, we quantify the precision and accuracy of each method in typical practical cases, providing guidelines to choose the most appropriate (LC, SI, or a simple background subtraction on a widefield image) for the sample under study.

4
Uncovering identifiability of epidemiological models: basic reproduction number and complementary data streams

Pant, B.; Saucedo, O.; Pogudin, G.

2026-01-19 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.01.16.26344284 medRxiv
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Mathematical models of infectious disease dynamics are routinely fitted to surveillance data to estimate epidemiological parameters and inform public health decisions. Such data are typically discrete and noisy, but before attempting estimation, it is essential to ask whether the model structure itself permits unique parameter identification at least under perfect (continuous, noise-free) observations. This mathematical property of a model with respect to observation(s), known as structural identifiability, serves as a necessary precondition for reliable inference, since a model that fails this test cannot yield unique parameter estimates even from perfect data. In this study, we systematically investigate structural identifiability in various classes of compartmental epidemic models and establish two main findings. First, we present and deploy a methodology for assessing structural identifiability of epidemiological quantities of interest and demonstrate that the basic reproduction number exhibits identifiability across diverse model structures--including models with multiple transmission pathways and host-vector dynamics--even when individual parameters are not uniquely identifiable. These findings challenge the assumption that complete model identifiability is necessary for reliable epidemiological inference and suggest reformulating the central question from "is the model identifiable?" to "are the quantities that matter for the decision-making identifiable?" Second, we prove that incorporating minimal complementary data, as little as a single time-point measurement from an additional state variable, can make otherwise nonidentifiable models globally identifiable. This result has direct implications for surveillance design: rather than putting limited resources into frequent monitoring of multiple data streams or relying on external parameter estimates that may be uncertain or context-dependent, public health systems can strategically prioritize collecting high-quality complementary measurements.

5
Sampling Mismatch and Correction for Ptychographic Single-Particle Analysis

Li, T.; Li, S.; Yan, Z.; Shen, Y.; Li, X.

2026-02-22 biophysics 10.64898/2026.02.21.707235 medRxiv
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Ptychographic single-particle analysis (SPA) is a promising technique for high-resolution biological imaging but is still limited by sub-nanometer resolution. In this study, we identified and investigated a critical issue termed sampling mismatch in ptychography that is caused by inaccuracies in the scanning step size and the pixel size of convergent beam electron diffraction (CBED) images. This mismatch induces pixel-size deviations in the reconstructed micrographs and modulates information transfer through a mismatch-induced modulation function (MIMF), which is characterized by phase reversals at specific spatial frequencies of the micrographs. These phase reversals, which vary with the defocus, cause destructive interference when merging micrographs, fundamentally limiting the resolution of SPA. We proposed a correction strategy and demonstrated, on the T. Acidophilum 20S proteasome and apoferritin datasets, that correcting sampling parameters eliminates signal distortions and improves resolution for [~]1.5 [A]. These findings underscore the necessity for the precise control and calibration of the scanning system to achieve high-resolution ptychographic SPA.

6
A comparison of observation models for statistical inference of emerging disease transmission dynamics: Application to SARS-CoV-2

Domenech de Celles, M.; Kramer, S. C.

2026-01-29 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.01.27.26344924 medRxiv
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1Parameter estimation is often necessary to inform transmission models of infectious diseases. This estimation requires choosing an observation model that links the model outputs to the observed data. Although potentially consequential, this choice has received little attention in the literature. Here, we aimed to compare eight observation models, including common distributions such as the Poisson, binomial, negative binomial, and normal (equivalent to least-squares estimation). Using Bayesian inference methods, we fit an SIR-like model to daily case reports during the first wave of COVID-19 in Belgium, Finland, Germany, and the UK. We found considerable differences in the log-likelihoods of the observation models, spanning three orders of magnitude between the best and the worst. Compared with the best models, the binomial, Poisson, and normal models received no support due to their rigid variance structures. Additionally, the binomial and Poisson models produced overly narrow prediction and confidence intervals, especially for key parameters such as the basic reproduction number. The other five models--each with a free dispersion parameter scaling the variance to the mean--performed significantly better, with the negative binomial model ranking first in three countries. We conclude that flexible observation models are essential for transmission models to accurately capture all sources of uncertainty.

7
Vascular waveform analysis using Bayesian pulse deconvolution

Ruth, P. S.; DeBenedetti, T.; O'Brien, L.; Landay, J. A.; Coleman, T.; Fox, E. B.

2026-02-11 bioengineering 10.64898/2026.02.09.699383 medRxiv
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Vascular waveforms, which measure bulk flow in blood vessels, are widely used to measure vital signs, diagnose conditions, and predict long-term health outcomes. Analyzing vascular waveforms depends on three fundamentally interdependent tasks: signal filtering, pulse timing detection, and pulse shape extraction. We hypothesized that Bayesian pulse deconvolution can achieve improved performance on all three tasks by solving them jointly. This method uses an analytical, generative model of vascular waveforms with priors informed by physical and biological domain knowledge. In simulations, Bayesian pulse deconvolution achieves better performance on all tasks compared with existing algorithms: 90% reduction of median filtering error, 60% reduction in pulse timing error, and 85% reduction in shape extraction error. The advantages in simulations extend to human recordings of photoplethysmography waveforms. Taking real time-synchronized electrocardiogram R-R intervals as a proxy ground truth, Bayesian pulse deconvolution achieves 40% lower pulse interval estimation error (RMSE = 5.1 ms) compared with typical algorithms (RMSE = 8.3 ms, p=1e-10). By extracting more accurate and informative insights from vascular waveforms, Bayesian pulse deconvolution could advance a wide array of health technologies that rely on interpreting signals from blood vessels.

8
Remote and Independent Detection of Human Stress Using Sweat and AI

Kochnev Goldstein, A.; Goldstein, Y.; Feldman, Y.; Einav, S.; Ben Ishai, P.

2026-01-22 biophysics 10.64898/2026.01.21.700962 medRxiv
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Previous studies exploring human sweat ducts as biological antennas in the sub-THz range have shown that the electromagnetic (EM) response of the skin is modulated by the persons mental and physical stress. These findings naturally raised hopes of a new remote avenue for detecting human stress. However, as those studies unmasked stress using correlations with well-established markers such as the Galvanic Skin Response (GSR), the question of whether the EM response could serve as an independent marker of stress remained unanswered. Here, we provide a positive answer to this question by showing that machine learning models trained on EM reflections from 21 participants, subjected to physical and mental stress, were able to estimate the presence of stress in a signal from a new participant, in a matter of seconds, with above 90% accuracy.

9
Impact of Image Representation on Deep Learning-Based Single-Cell Classification by Holographic Imaging Flow Cytometry

Pirone, D.; Cavina, B.; Giugliano, G.; Nanetti, F.; Reggiani, F.; Miccio, L.; Kurelac, I.; Ferraro, P.; Memmolo, P.

2026-02-28 biophysics 10.64898/2026.02.26.708207 medRxiv
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Accurate cell type classification is essential for a wide range of biomedical applications, including disease diagnosis, drug discovery, and the study of cellular processes. Holographic imaging flow cytometry (HIFC) provides label-free quantitative phase imaging (QPI) of individual cells, enabling classification based on phase images. However, reconstructing holograms into phase images involves multi-step image processing, which introduces substantial computational overhead. The availability of diverse image representations across holographic reconstruction stages allows for flexible analytical strategies, enabling the optimization of trade-off between classification accuracy and computational efficiency. Moreover, deep learning offers an efficient alternative, accelerating the reconstruction process while performing accurate classification. However, despite its importance, this optimization challenge remains largely unexplored in the current literature. Here, we present the first systematic evaluation aimed at balancing classification accuracy with computational efficiency, highlighting how different image representations affect overall performance. We focus on a binary classification task discriminating natural killer cells from breast cancer cells. Six distinct classification pipelines are evaluated: direct processing of raw holograms, analysis of demodulated complex fields (CFs), refocused CFs, unwrapped phase images, and two deep learning-based methods that either replace the automatic refocusing stage or perform end-to-end hologram-to-phase reconstruction. For each strategy, we assess both computational cost and classification performance. Our results reveal a clear trade-off: reconstructed phase images provide the highest accuracy, whereas simpler representations or accelerated reconstruction methods significantly reduce processing time with minimal loss of accuracy. A Pareto analysis identifies the optimal set of strategies, offering practical guidelines for selecting image representations and processing pipelines based on available hardware and desired performance. Thus, this work offers a systematic framework for high-throughput deep learning classification in HIFC, serving as a potential reference for future biomedical applications.

10
Doubling the Field of View in Common-Path Digital Holographic Microscopy via Wavelength Scanning and Polarization Gratings

Piekarska, A.; Rogalski, M.; Stefaniuk, M.; Trusiak, M.; Zdankowski, P.

2026-04-06 biophysics 10.64898/2026.04.03.716314 medRxiv
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Digital holographic microscopy systems in a common-path configuration, compared to systems with a separate reference arm, offer a compact design and resistance to disturbances. They can operate with partially coherent illumination, reducing speckle noise. However, they are limited by the overlapping of the object beam and its laterally shifted replica. As a result, images from different regions of the object overlap on the detector, preventing imaging of dense samples. We present the wavelength-scanning replica-removal method, which solves this problem by enabling the separation of information from both replicas and thereby doubling the effective field of view (FOV). The wavelength-scanning multi-shear replica removal algorithm plays a key role in reconstructing the undisturbed phase from a series of holograms recorded with variable shears. The shear value is controlled by changing the illumination wavelength. This enabled the development of two measurement modes: time-domain wavelength scanning for high-quality imaging, and a single-shot mode with frame division into color channels to improve temporal resolution. The method was validated using resolution tests and biological samples - neurons and dynamic yeast cultures. By combining the advantages of the common-path configuration with dense-structure imaging and dynamic processes, the proposed method constitutes a versatile tool for quantitative phase microscopy.

11
Automated Model Discovery Based on COVID-19 Epidemiologic Data

Babazadeh Shareh, M.; Kleiner, F.; Böhme, M.; Hägele, C.; Dickmann, P.; Heintzmann, R.

2026-02-24 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.02.22.26346850 medRxiv
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The COVID-19 pandemic has presented severe challenges in understanding and predicting the spread of infectious diseases, necessitating innovative approaches beyond traditional epidemiological models. This study introduces an advanced method for automated model discovery using the Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) algorithm, leveraging a dataset from the COVID-19 outbreak in Thuringia, Germany, encompassing over 400,000 patient records and vaccination data. By analysing this dataset, we develop a flexible, data-driven model that captures many aspects of the complex dynamics of the pandemics spread. Our approach incorporates external factors and interventions into the mathematical framework, leading to more accurate modelling of the pandemics behaviour. The fixed coefficient values of the differential equation as globally determined by the SINDy were not found to be accurate for locally modelling the measured data. We therefore refined our technique based on the differential equations as found by SINDy, by investigating three modifications that account for recent local data. In a first approach, we re-optimized the coefficient values using seven days of past data, without changing the globally determined differential equation. In a second approach, we allowed a temporal dependence of the coefficient values fitted using all previous data in combination with regularization. As a last method, we kept the coefficients fixed to the original values but augmented the differential equation with a small neural network, locally optimized to the data of the past week. Our findings reveal the critical role of vaccination and public health measures in the pandemics trajectory. The proposed model offers a robust tool for policymakers and health professionals to mitigate future outbreaks, providing insights into the efficacy of intervention strategies and vaccination campaigns. This study advances the understanding of COVID-19 dynamics and lays the groundwork for future research in epidemic modelling, emphasising the importance of adaptive, data-informed approaches in public health planning.

12
A bootstrap particle filter for viral Rt inference and forecasting using wastewater data

Xiao, W. F.; Wang, Y.; Goel, N.; Wolfe, M.; Koelle, K.

2026-03-06 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.03.06.26347747 medRxiv
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Wastewater is increasingly being recognized as an important data stream that can contribute to infectious disease surveillance and forecasting. With this recognition, a growing number of statistical inference approaches are being developed to use wastewater data to provide quantitative insights into epidemiological dynamics. However, few existing approaches have allowed for systematic integration of data streams for inference, for example by combining case incidence data and/or serological data with wastewater data. Furthermore, only a subset of existing approaches have been able to handle missing data without imputation and to handle datasets with different sampling times or intervals. Here, we develop a statistically rigorous, yet lightweight, approach to infer and forecast time-varying effective reproduction numbers (Rt values) using longitudinal wastewater virus concentrations either alone or jointly with additional data streams including case incidence data and serological data. Our approach relies on a state-space modeling approach for inference and forecasting, within the context of a simple bootstrap particle filter. We first describe the structure of our underlying disease transmission process model as well as our observation models. Using a mock dataset, we then show that Rt can be accurately estimated by interfacing this model with case incidence data, wastewater data, or a combination of these two data streams using the bootstrap particle filter. Of note, we show that these data streams alone do not allow for reconstruction of underlying infection dynamics due to structural parameter unidentifiability. We then apply our particle filter to a previously analyzed SARS-CoV-2 dataset from Zurich that includes case data and wastewater data. Our analyses of these real-world datasets indicate that incorporation of process noise (in the form of environmental stochasticity) into the state space model greatly improves our ability to reconstruct the latent variables of the model. We further show that underlying infection dynamics can be made identifiable through the incorporation of serological data and that the bootstrap particle filter can be used to make forecasts of Rt, case incidence, and wastewater virus concentrations. We hope that the inference approach presented here will lead to greater reliance on wastewater data for disease surveillance and forecasting that will aid public health practitioners in responding to infectious disease threats.

13
Enhanced 2D structured illumination microscopy: super-resolution with optical sectioning and reduced reconstruction artifacts

Steinecker, S. M.; Ortkrass, H.; Schuerstedt-Seher, J. C.; Kiel, A.; Kralemann-Koehler, A.; Schulte am Esch, J.; Huser, T.; Mueller, M.

2026-02-28 biophysics 10.64898/2026.02.26.708245 medRxiv
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Structured Illumination Microscopy (SIM) provides imaging with spatial super-resolution, as well as optical sectioning capability, without relying on specialized fluorescent dyes. 2D and 3D variants of this method exist, but most bespoke implementations are 2D-SIM, because it is easier to realize and modify than 3D-SIM. 2D-SIM systems, however, often experience reconstruction artifacts, especially when pushing for high lateral spatial resolution in thicker samples. We present enhanced 2D-SIM, an approach to 2D-SIM where both, coarse patterns optimized for removing out-of-focus background, and fine patterns optimized for resolution improvement beyond the diffraction limit are used. In combination, this achieves 2D-SIM reconstructions with high contrast, spatial super-resolution, and significantly reduced reconstruction artifacts. We present the theoretical framework of this technique, and provide enhanced 2D-SIM imaging results of liver sinusoidal endothelial cells stained with fluorophores emitting at visible and near-infrared wavelengths. Quantitative comparisons of power spectral distribution and image resolution are provided.

14
Estimating the strength of symptom propagation from primary-secondary case pair data

Asplin, P.; Mancy, R.; Keeling, M. J.; Hill, E. M.

2026-04-13 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.04.07.26350037 medRxiv
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Symptom propagation occurs when the symptoms of secondary cases are related to those of the primary case as a result of epidemiological mechanisms. Determining whether - and to what extent - symptom propagation occurs requires data-driven methods. Here we quantify the strength of symptom propagation as the increase in risk of a secondary case developing severe symptoms if the primary case has severe symptoms. We first used synthetic results to determine the data requirements to robustly estimate the strength of symptom propagation and to investigate the effect of severity-dependent reporting bias. Categorising symptom severity into two group (mild or severe; asymptomatic or symptomatic), our estimation requires only four summary statistics - the number of primary-secondary case pairs of each combination of symptom presentations. Our analysis showed that a relatively small number (100) of synthetic primary-secondary case pairs was sufficient to obtain a reasonable estimate of the strength of symptom propagation and 1,000 pairs meant errors were consistently small across replicates. Our estimates were robust to severity-dependent reporting bias. We also explored how symptom propagation can be separated from other individual-level factors affecting severity, using age dependence as an example. Although synthetic data generated from an age-structured model led to overestimations of the strength of symptom propagation, allowing disease severity to be age-dependent restored the accuracy of parameter estimation. Finally, we applied our methodology to estimate the strength of symptom propagation from three publicly available data collected during the COVID-19 pandemic with data on presence or absence of symptoms: England households, Israel households, and Norway contact tracing. Our age-free methodology indicated a 12-17% increase in the risk of being symptomatic if infected by someone symptomatic. Our positive estimates for the strength of symptom propagation persisted when applying our age-dependent methodology to the two household data sets with age-structured information (England and Israel). These findings demonstrate evidence for symptom propagation of SARS-CoV-2 and provide consistent estimates for its strength. Our synthetic data analysis supports the conclusion that these correlations are not a result of reporting bias or age-dependent effects. This work provides a practical tool for estimating the strength of symptom propagation that has minimal data requirements, enabling application across a wide range of pathogens and epidemiological settings.

15
Characterizing MINFLUX imaging performance with DNA origami

Clowsley, A. H.; Bokhobza, A. F. E.; Janicek, R.; Kołataj, K.; Bleuer, G.; Di Michele, L.; Acuna, G. P.; Soeller, C.

2026-02-24 biophysics 10.64898/2026.02.24.707670 medRxiv
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MINFLUX, a second-generation super-resolution technique, can localize fluorescent markers approaching single-nanometer precision in three dimensions. Similar to previous super-resolution methodologies, the extended duration of acquisitions can result in drift that needs accurate correction to enable proper analysis and interpretation of the collected data. Here, we use DNA origami, housing sites of known spatial distribution fitted with repeat-domain docking strands for DNA-PAINT imaging to characterize imaging performance over extended duration MINFLUX acquisitions (6-20 h). Repeat-domain docking strands overcome site-loss and reveal residual drift in prolonged MINFLUX 3D acquisitions that we correct with an algorithm exploiting time-correlated shifts of localizations around identified DNA origami sites. Following correction of residual drift the site precision, i.e. the scatter of localizations around sites, is [~]2 nm in all directions. Comparison of site precision from extended repeat-domain docking strands with site precision from standard short 8-10 nucleotide docking strands exhibits no detectable loss of site precision. By adding DNA origami structures to mounted biological samples we apply our approach to the imaging of the cardiac ryanodine receptor 2 in cryosectioned heart tissue. The data suggests that for these protein targets single domain markers with repeat domain docking strands may be directly used for residual drift correction, simplifying sample preparation and acquisition protocols.

16
Micro-elastography of biopsies

Gregoire, S.; Giammarinaro, B.; Le Quere, D.; Devissi, M.; BRULPORT, A.; Catheline, S.

2026-03-18 biophysics 10.64898/2026.03.17.712283 medRxiv
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Micro-elastography is an optical technique that studies elastic waves for the mechanical characterisation of micrometric objects, such as cells. We propose to adapt this technique for the characterisation of millimetre-sized samples using a white light microscope. The objective is to perform a rapid, global characterisation of the elasticity of a biopsy. The millimetre-sized samples to be characterized are embedded in an agarose gel. A vibrator generates shear waves in this gel that transmit naturally inside the sample. This technique removes the need for precise manipulation of the wave source. A high-speed camera records the propagation of the waves in the sample. Their velocity is calculated using a noise correlation approach. Due to the lack of millimetric phantoms of calibrated elasticity, we choose to validate this method with a three step process. The experimental setup is first validated on homogeneous gels, then on biological samples of increasing elasticity, biopsies of beef liver hardened by heating, and finally on biological samples of clinical interest: biopsies of mouse endometrium. This method can be applied to all types of biological tissue, paving the way for rapid mechanical characterization of biopsies.

17
Horizon-dependent forecast ranking under structural change: a rolling-origin benchmark for global COVID-19 incidence

Sesay, M. M.; Wembo, M. S.

2026-03-12 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.03.11.26348121 medRxiv
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Short-horizon epidemic forecasting is difficult when surveillance series are highly nonstationary and affected by structural change and evolving reporting conditions. This study evaluates statistical models for global daily COVID-19 incidence using a rolling-origin benchmark designed to approximate real-time forecasting under such conditions. Using global incidence data from 22 January to 27 July 2020, we compare naive, seasonal naive, drift, ARIMA(log1p), ETS(log1p), and Prophet(log1p) forecasts at horizons h [isin] {1, 3, 7, 14} days. Structural phases are identified retrospectively on a variance-stabilized scale and used only to stratify forecast errors. Forecast ranking is strongly horizon-dependent. In the full-sample benchmark, drift performs best at the 1-, 7-, and 14-day horizons, while seasonal naive performs best at 3 days. Among the transformed statistical models, ARIMA(log1p) is competitive at short horizons, whereas ETS(log1p) becomes stronger at 7 and 14 days. Diebold-Mariano tests confirm that several of these differences are statistically meaningful, particularly in favor of drift at short and long horizons and in favor of ETS(log1p) over ARIMA(log1p) at longer horizons. Prophet(log1p) is not competitive in point forecasting and achieves high nominal interval coverage mainly through very wide prediction intervals. Robustness analyses show that the main ranking patterns are broadly stable to alternative segmentation settings, training-window policies, coverage-stabilized subsamples, and alternative target construction based on cumulative confirmed counts. Overall, the results show that simple baselines remain difficult to outperform in epidemic surveillance data and that horizon-specific rolling evaluation is essential for credible forecast comparison under structural change. Author summaryForecasting infectious disease incidence is difficult when case data change rapidly over time and when reporting systems are still evolving. In this study, I examined how several common statistical forecasting models perform on global daily COVID-19 incidence during the early pandemic. Rather than asking which model is best overall, I focused on whether model ranking changes across forecast horizons and whether those conclusions remain stable under different evaluation choices. I compared simple baselines, including naive, seasonal naive, and drift forecasts, with ARIMA, exponential smoothing, and Prophet models using a rolling-origin benchmark that mimics real-time forecasting. I found that forecast ranking depends strongly on the horizon: drift performed best at 1, 7, and 14 days, while seasonal naive performed best at 3 days. Among the transformed statistical models, ARIMA was more competitive at shorter horizons, whereas exponential smoothing was stronger at longer horizons. I also found that these conclusions remained broadly stable under alternative segmentation settings, training windows, coverage-stabilized subsamples, and target definitions. These results show that simple baselines can remain highly competitive in epidemic surveillance data and that horizon-specific evaluation is essential for fair forecast comparison under structural change.

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Interpersonal physiological synchrony: estimation and clinical application to cardiac dynamics of parent-infant dyads

Lavezzo, L.; Grandjean, D.; Delplanque, S.; Barcos-Munoz, F.; Borradori-Tolsa, C.; Scilingo, E. P.; Filippa, M.; Nardelli, M.

2026-03-23 bioengineering 10.64898/2026.03.19.712915 medRxiv
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Synchrony is a key mechanism that builds up the foundations of human interactions. Quantifying the level of physiological synchronization that occurs during dyadic exchanges is essential to fully comprehend social phenomena. We present a new index to characterize the coupling of complex physiological dynamics: the optimized Multichannel Complexity Index (opMCI). We validated this approach using synthetic time series of two coupled Henon Maps, with four different coupling levels in unidirectional and bidirectional manners. We demonstrated that the opMCI method allows to effectively discern between all coupling levels. Then, we applied the opMCI metric on heart rate variability data collected from 37 parent-infant dyads, during shared reading and playing activities, in the framework of the Shared Emotional Reading (SHER) project, with the aim of assessing the effects of early intervention in preterm babies. Two groups presented preterm infants: an intervention group, who participated in a two-month shared reading program, and a control group, who practiced shared play activities. A full-term group provided additional control data. The opMCI values were significantly higher for the intervention dyads with respect to the other groups during the shared reading task, showing that an early reading intervention program could increase parent-infant synchrony in preterm babies.

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Incorporating Uncertainty in Study Participants' Age in Serocatalytic Models

Chen, J.; Lambe, T.; Kamau, E.; Donnelly, C.; Lambert, B.; Bajaj, S.

2026-03-16 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.03.14.26346885 medRxiv
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AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWSerological surveys measure the presence of antibodies in a population to infer past exposure to an infectious pathogen. If study participants ages are known, serocatalytic models can be used to retrace the historical transmission strength of a pathogen within that population, quantified by the force of infection (FOI). These models rely on age information as a key variable since infection risks are interpreted in relation to how long individuals have been at risk. However, due to data constraints, participants ages may be provided only within "age bins". A common approach is then to assign individuals ages to be midpoints of their respective age bins, ignoring uncertainty in this quantity. In this study, we quantify the bias introduced by this midpoint approach and develop a Bayesian framework that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in age. By comparing inference under constant, age-dependent, and time-dependent FOI scenarios, we show that incorporating uncertainty in age in serocatalytic models yields more reliable FOI estimates without sacrificing computational complexity. These improvements support the interpretation of serological data and inform public health decisions, such as estimating disease burden and identifying targeted vaccination groups.

20
An Efficient Constant-Coefficient MSAV Scheme for Computing Vesicle Growth and Shrinkage

Zhang, Z.; Li, S.; Lowengrub, J.; Wise, S. M.

2026-01-23 biophysics 10.64898/2026.01.21.700903 medRxiv
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We present a fast, unconditionally energy-stable numerical scheme for simulating vesicle deformation under osmotic pressure using a phase-field approach. The model couples an Allen-Cahn equation for the biomembrane interface with a variable-mobility Cahn-Hilliard equation governing mass exchange across the membrane. Classical approaches, including nonlinear multigrid and Multiple Scalar Auxiliary Variable (MSAV) methods, require iterative solution of variable-coefficient systems at each time step, resulting in substantial computational cost. We introduce a constant-coefficient MSAV (CC-MSAV) scheme that incorporates stabilization directly into the Cahn-Hilliard evolution equation rather than the chemical potential. This reformulation yields fully decoupled constant-coefficient elliptic problems solvable via fast discrete cosine transform (DCT), eliminating iterative solvers entirely. The method achieves O(N2 log N) complexity per time step while preserving unconditional energy stability and discrete mass conservation. Numerical experiments verify second-order temporal and spatial accuracy, mass conservation to relative errors below 5 x 10-11, and close agreement with nonlinear multigrid benchmarks. On grids with N [≥] 2048, CC-MSAV achieves 6-15x overall speedup compared to classical MSAV with optimized preconditioning, while the dominant Cahn-Hilliard subsystem is accelerated by up to two orders of magnitude. These efficiency gains, achieved without sacrificing accuracy, make CC-MSAV particularly well-suited for large-scale simulations of vesicle dynamics.